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Rubens: The Fur Cloak, about 1636-1639. His model was Helena, his wife. |
Is there global
cooling in our future? Scientists are predicting a period of less solar
activity, which could be a sign of temporary cooling, but warn that global warming as a trend is a fact that's here to stay.
Our ancestors survived conditions with considerably less
resources than we have available. There was no central heating in their homes
and shops, of course, and fuel (peat, coal, and wood) was just as expensive, or
more so, as the fuels we consume today. Most people just couldn’t afford the
luxury of warmth in winter. They didn’t change clothes or bathe much, especially
in cold weather when they’d have to haul and heat water. They shared beds near
a kitchen hearth or a chimney column if on an upper floor.
Family size burgeoned during the
global temperature dip of the 16th and 17th centuries:
maybe the long, freezing nights were not all that boring. Certainly, a number
of family members of William and Mary
Barrett Dyer had birthdays in September through December. So we can make an educated guess
about what happened during the preceding January, February, and March deep freezes. It didn't hurt that the Puritans took the "Be fruitful and multiply" command from Creation very seriously.
The Little Ice Age, from about 1317-1800, began with
catastrophic floods, crop failure, and domestic animal deaths (which brought on
economic depression), harsh winters—and starvation. Epidemics raged unchecked,
and millions died in the plague outbreak in 1348-1350. Because so many
laborers (peasants tied to the land, who owed service to their landlords) died,
cathedral and castle building ground to a halt for years. It may have begun in an active period of vulcanism in the 13th century that resulted in worldwide ash and dust distribution, which led to rapid climate cooling.
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Iceland surrounded by icebergs, 17th century |
Of course our ancestors knew nothing about it, but they
experienced the effects of a plunge in sunspot activity in the 1600s, which
corresponded with the coldest years of the Little Ice Age. Specifically during
Mary Dyer’s lifetime, 1611-1660, there was the time of famines, waves of
plague and other epidemics across Europe, the Thirty Years War, the Great Migration to America, the English Civil War, and the
explosion of African slave trade to the Americas
and Europe. On America’s east coast, there were
harvest failures, starvation, epidemics of smallpox and yellow fever, and pest
plagues. Iceland’s
ports were ice-bound by miles for several years, and trade and passenger
shipping from Europe was forced far south to
avoid sea ice. Boston
Harbor's sea water froze
over for more than a mile out, hard enough to walk on, for two weeks at a
time.
See "Boston snowpocalypses of 1638" in this blog.
Journal of Governor
John Winthrop—January 1638 (when the Dyers were still living in Boston but preparing to move to Portsmouth, Rhode Island):
“About thirty
persons of Boston going out in a fair day to Spectacle Island to cut wood, (the
town being in great want thereof,) the next night the wind rose so high at N.E.
with snow, and after at N.W. for two days, and then it froze so hard, as the
bay was all frozen up, save a little channel. In this twelve of them gate
to the Governor’s Garden [an island], and seven more were carried in the ice in
a small skiff out at Broad Sound, and kept among Brewster’s Rocks, without food
or fire, two days, and then the wind forbearing, they gate to Pull-in Point, to
a little house there of Mr. Aspenwall’s. Three of them got home the next day
over the ice, but their hands and feet frozen. Some lost their fingers and
toes, and one died. The rest went from Spectacle Island
to the main, but two of them fell into the ice, yet recovered again. In this
extremity of weather, a small pinnace was cast away upon Long Island [in Boston Harbor]
by Natascott, but the men were saved and came home upon the ice.”
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Little Ice Age severity, AD1000-2000 |
The Little Ice Age “peaked” in Mary Barrett Dyer’s
lifetime—the coldest years in many centuries were those she spent in colonial America. This
graph shows the severity of winters in Europe and North
America from 1000-2000 AD. The absolute coldest period, 1600-1675,
coincides with William and Mary Dyer’s life spans.
The Dyers lived in Boston
from 1635 to the spring of 1638, then co-founded Portsmouth, Rhode Island,
about 60 miles away. One year later, they co-founded the city of Newport, Rhode
Island, where they developed a large farm and the
seaport.
When Mary Dyer was making a winter trip back to America after several years in England, her ship diverted to Barbados
because of severe storms. From a letter written in Barbados on Feb 25, 1657:
“A ship came in hither, which
was going to New England, but the storms were so violent that they were forced to come hither,
[until] the winter there was nearly over. In this ship were two Friends, Anne
Burden of Bristol, and one Mary Dyer from London; both lived in New
England formerly, and were members cast out of their [Puritan] churches. Mary
goes to her husband who lives upon Rhode
Island...”
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London's Thames River frozen, 1684 |
A
NASA website
says, “During the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, from 1645 to 1715, there
is believed to have been a decrease in the total energy output from the Sun, as
indicated by little or no sunspot activity. Known as the Maunder Minimum,
astronomers of the time observed only about 50 sunspots for a 30-year period as
opposed to a more typical 40-50,000 spots. The Sun normally shows signs of
variability, such as its eleven-year sunspot cycle. Within that time, it goes
from a minimum to a maximum period of activity represented by a peak in sunspots
and flare activity.”
More from NASA: “Between the mid-1600s and the early 1700s the Earth’s surface
temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere appear to have been at or near their
lowest values of the last millennium. European winter temperatures over that
time period were reduced by 1.8 to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1-1.5 Celsius). This
cool down is evident through derived temperature readings from tree rings and
ice cores, and in historical temperature records, as gathered by the University of Massachusetts-Amherst
and the University
of Virginia.”
More articles on the solar minimum:
Huffington Post http://huff.to/l2nMfW
The New American http://bit.ly/ldkK61
LA Times http://lat.ms/nTXTqP
Climate Science International http://bit.ly/LC6P
Scientists say that global warming is already here and will continue to worsen, even if the sun goes quiet for a short period.
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Goodnight sun: Scientists predict sunspots might
disappear for years
By: Associated Press
Updated June 15,
2011
WASHINGTON
- The sun is heading into an unusual and extended hibernation, scientists
predict. Around 2020, sunspots may disappear for years, maybe decades.
But scientists say it is nothing to worry about. Solar storm
activity has little to do with life-giving light and warmth from the sun. The
effects from a calmer sun are mostly good.
There’d be fewer disruptions of satellites and power
systems. And it might mean a little less increase in global warming. It’s
happened before, but not for a couple centuries.
“The solar cycle is maybe going into hiatus, sort of like
a summertime TV show,” said National Solar Observatory associate director
Frank Hill, the lead author of a scientific presentation at a solar physics
conference in New Mexico.
Scientists don’t know why the sun is going quiet. But all
the signs are there. Hill and colleagues based their prediction on three
changes in the sun spotted by scientific teams: Weakening sunspots, fewer
streams spewing from the poles of the sun’s corona and a disappearing solar jet
stream.
Those three cues show, “there’s a good possibility that the
sun could be going into some sort of state from which it takes a long time to
recover,” said Richard Altrock, an astrophysicist at the Air Force Research
Laboratory and study co-author.
The prediction is specifically aimed at the solar cycle
starting in 2020. Experts say the sun has already been unusually quiet for
about four years with few sunspots -- higher magnetic areas that appear as dark
spots.
The enormous magnetic field of the sun dictates the solar
cycle, which includes sunspots, solar wind and ejection of fast-moving
particles that sometimes hit Earth. Every 22 years, the sun’s magnetic field
switches north and south, creating an 11-year sunspot cycle. At peak times,
like 2001, there are sunspots every day and more frequent solar flares and
storms that could disrupt satellites.
Earlier this month, David Hathaway, NASA’s top solar storm
scientist, predicted that the current cycle, which started around 2009, will be
the weakest in a century. Hathaway is not part of Tuesday’s [June 14, 2011]
prediction.
Altrock also thinks the current cycle won’t have much solar
activity. He tracks streamers from the solar corona, the sun’s outer atmosphere
seen during eclipses. The streamers normally get busy around the sun’s poles a
few years before peak solar storm activity. That “rush to the poles” would have
happened by now, but it hasn’t and there’s no sign of it yet. That also means
the cycle after that is uncertain, he said.
Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory, another study
co-author, said sunspot magnetic fields have been steadily decreasing in
strength since 1998. If they continue on the current pace, their magnetic
fields will be too weak to become spots as of 2022 or so, he said.
Jet streams on the sun’s surface and below are also early
indicators of solar storm activity, and they haven’t formed yet for the 2020
cycle. That indicates that there will be little or delayed activity in that
cycle, said Hill, who tracks jet streams.
“People shouldn’t be scared of this,” said David McComas, a
scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, who wasn’t part of the team.
“This is about the magnetic field and the ionized gas coming out of the sun.
It’s a reduction in that, not the light and the heat.”
There are questions about what this means for Earth’s
climate. Three times in the past the regular 11-year solar cycle has gone on an
extended vacation -- at the same time as cool periods on Earth.
Skeptics of man-made global warming from the burning of
fossil fuels have often pointed to solar radiation as a possible cause of a
warming Earth, but they are in the minority among scientists. The Earth has
warmed as solar activity has decreased.
Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria,
said there could be small temperature effects, but they are far weaker than the
strength of man-made global warming from carbon dioxide and methane. He noted
that in 2010, when solar activity was mostly absent, Earth tied for its hottest
year in more than a century of record-keeping.
Hill and colleagues wouldn’t discuss the effects of a quiet
sun on temperature or global warming.
“If our predictions are true, we’ll have a wonderful
experiment that will determine whether the sun has any effect on global
warming,” Hill said.
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Emerging from the solar minimum in 2020--article from NASA and NOAA.